Meet the team
Tim Adams Independent Financial Adviser
Market Commentary
Hello and welcome to our latest Market Commentary.
The idea behind these updates is really simple. There is an awful lot of noise out there at the moment, so I want to cut through the headlines and explain what is actually happening and, more importantly, what it means for you and your money.
The commentary on this page is for general information purposes and does not consitute advice.
The Big Picture - What's Going On
Markets have been remarkably resilient during 2026.
We have had continuing tensions in the Middle East, oil moving back above $90 a barrel, inflation remaining stubborn and uncertainty around where interest rates go next.
Despite all of that, global markets have generally held up well, with US markets reaching record highs earlier this month.
Over the last week we have seen some volatility return. The S&P 500 fell around 0.9% on Thursday, the Nasdaq around 1%, while Japan’s Nikkei is down roughly 4% over the week.
Oil, meanwhile, has risen more than 5% this week.
Why Does That Matter?
The big issue with higher oil prices is inflation
If businesses are paying more for fuel, transportation and energy, some of those costs eventually find their way through to us.
That matters because it could mean interest rates stay higher for longer.
We are seeing that concern reflected in government bond markets as well, with longer-term borrowing costs remaining elevated.
So, in very simple terms:
Higher oil → potentially higher inflation → interest rates stay higher → markets become a little more nervous.
What About the UK?
Interestingly, the UK market has been holding up relatively well.
That is partly because the FTSE 100 contains lots of energy companies, banks, miners, and large international businesses rather than being dominated by technology companies.
UK inflation is currently around 2.9%, so the Bank of England still has some work to do.
Sterling has also strengthened to around $1.36, which is worth watching if you hold investments overseas.
Remember, most of us investing through pensions and ISAs will have considerable exposure to America and the rest of the world, so what happens to currencies can affect the value of those investments when converted back into pounds.
What Does This Mean for Your Pension and Investments?
This is the important bit.
In my view, very little has changed for a properly diversified long-term investor.
A pension or investment portfolio should not depend on America, Britain, technology, oil, or any single investment doing well.
Different parts of your portfolio should perform differently at different times.
That is exactly why we diversify.
And remember, markets going down occasionally is not something going wrong.
It is part of investing.
If you are regularly paying into a pension or ISA, lower markets can actually allow your contributions to buy more units, which can be beneficial when markets recover.
Should You Be Doing Anything?
For most investors, probably not.
If your circumstances have not changed, your objectives have not changed and your portfolio remains appropriate for you, a difficult week in the markets is not a reason to change a long-term financial plan.
Trying to guess when to get out of markets is difficult.
But there is another problem.
You then must guess when to get back in again.
And getting both decisions consistently right is almost impossible.
What Are We Watching Next?
There are really four things:
Inflation. Interest rates. Oil. Company profits.
We will also continue watching AI closely. Huge amounts of money are being invested into Artificial Intelligence and technology, but investors will increasingly want to see those investments turning into actual profits.
There will undoubtedly be more volatility and probably a few surprises along the way.
There always are.
Martyn's Final Thought
Try not to worry about every headline.
The story will change again next week.
What matters is whether your financial plan still works, whether your investments remain properly diversified and whether you are still on track to achieve what you originally set out to do.
If those things have not changed, quite often the best thing you can do with your investments is simply leave them alone and let time do its job.”